Wheat Yield Forecasting for the Tisza River Catchment Using Landsat 8 NDVI and SAVI Time Series and Reported Crop Statistics

Authors: Attila Nagy, Andrea Szabó, Odunayo David Adeniyi and János Tamás

Due to the increasing global demand for food grain, early and reliable information on crop production is important in decision-making in agricultural production. Remote sensing (RS)-based forecast models developed from vegetation indices have the potential to give quantitative and timely information on crops for larger regions or even at farm scale. Different vegetation indices are being used for this purpose, however, their efficiency in estimating crop yield certainly needs to be tested. In this study, the wheat yield was derived by linear regressing reported yield values against a time series of six different peak-seasons (2013–2018) using the Landsat 8-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI). NDVI- and SAVIbased forecasting models were validated based on 2018–2019 datasets and compared to evaluate the most appropriate index that performs better in forecasting wheat production in the Tisza river basin.

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